The Cincinnati Reds Ace is Building a Cy Young Case

Thus far, the 2024 Cincinnati Reds season has not quite gone to plan. Matt McLain has missed the entire season to date due to injury. The lineup has gone cold in big moments. Overall, the team hasn't been able to stack wins to dig itself out of the 9-18 free fall from May. However, Hunter Greene has been one of the bright spots for baseball's oldest club.

On the year, Greene has posted an 8-4 record with a 2.90 ERA. He leads all NL pitchers with 5.1 bWAR and is fourth among all players. He leads the way with 5.875 hits/9 and is second in the NL with 149 ERA+.

And those marks are all season-long. Since the beginning of July, he's been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Despite a three-run outing in his last start, Greene has a 0.92 ERA over his last six starts (39 innings). In that time, he's struck out 45 batters.

In that stretch, opposing lineups are hitting .124/.226/.155 with just 16 hits, 11 walks, and one home run. He has put his team in the best position to win as well. Over those six games, the Reds were winning in five and tied once (last time out).

Across his 23 starts, when Greene exited the game, the Reds were leading 10 times, tied 7 times, and behind six times.

He's posted seven scoreless starts on the year and five more one-run starts. However, the Reds are 5-7 in those games due to a lack of run support. In those seven scoreless starts, the Reds are just 3-4. If Greene had a bit more support in his starts, his - and the team's - perceptions would be vastly different.

It seems that Greene is fighting a losing battle when it comes to garnering Cy Young hype, however. Based on three of the biggest sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365), Greene is a distant fourth behind Chris Sale (13-3, 2.61 ERA, 161 ERA+), Zack Wheeler (11-5, 2.78 ERA, 147ERA+), and rookie Paul Skenes (6-2, 2.25 ERA, 183+).

Recency bias is a hellova drug and if Greene can finish these next six-plus weeks as strong as he has been over the past six, those odds should improve. However, it pays to be the best on a great team.

Comparatively, Greene's candidacy isn't out of left field. Sale has been remarkable this year, but he's had help. He has just four scoreless starts and seven one-run starts. The Braves are 4-0 and 6-1, respectively, in those starts.

Wheeler has seven scoreless starts (Phillies are 5-2) and six one-run starts (Phillies are 5-1). Skenes has made 15 starts in his rookie season and has three scoreless outings (Pirates are 3-0) and five one-run starts (Pirates are 2-3).

Greene certainly belongs in the conversation. How far that conversation goes before it's derailed by the fact the Reds will likely finish below .500 is another issue.