Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel has vaulted into the favorite's position in the preseason Heisman Trophy odds, ahead of Georgia's Carson Beck and Longhorn gunslinger Quinn Ewers, but to remain there he'll have to be like Simon Biles, icy cool in the clutch.
A college football season has its compulsory elements and tumbling runs, but like Biles in Paris, Gabriel, Beck, Ewers and the rest will be judged on how they perform in the biggest moments and whether they nail their signature moves. In college football that means achieving grace and degree of difficulty, outperforming Top 25 opponents in big games.
Gabriel has to beat Will Howard and Ohio State on October 12th. He has to perform a triple somersault in November, winning difficult road games at number 9 Michigan and Wisconsin, then stick the landing November 30 when the Ducks host new Big Ten rival Washington, a team that holds a three-game winning streak over the Webfoots since Dan Lanning took over as coach.
In this competition there are 870 judges, 145 sports journalists from each of the six regions of the country, plus 57 previous winners, and one vote from the fans in a nationwide survey sponsored by Nissan and ESPN.
The vote comes in December but the judging begins now. Being the favorite isn't necessarily good news: The award tends to eat the favorite and loves an underdog story, a late season rush of gaudy stats and big moments.
The judges will throw out a candidate's lowest score, say a 7.5 performance in a game in September, but maintaining momentum in the peak moments is crucial. Gabriel has to turn in 9.9s when the Ducks play on national TV, Friday night games versus Michigan State and at Purdue, the flashbulb-popping clash with the Buckeyes, handling the pressure of the Big House and Camp Randall.
At his best, the transfer from Oklahoma can be very good, even Simone Biles good.
Last season the Sooners opened the season 7-0 including a 34-30 win in the Red Rivalry at number three Texas. Gabriel was 23-38 passing for 285 yards, He drove his team 75 yards in five plays in the last two minutes, tossing a game-winning touchdown to Nic Anderson with 25 seconds to play. He ran for 113 yards and a touchdown and broke loose for a 44-yard run.
That was a 9.9.
Another flawless performance came against Tulsa on September 16. Gabriel went 28-31 passing for 421 yards and five touchdowns in a 66-17 pasting of the Golden Hurricanes, with scoring strikes of 34 yards to Jalil Farooq, 28, 42, and 50 yards to Anderson, 9 yards to Drake Stoops.
After a 3-0 start he had the judges captivated and on September 30 the number 14 Sooners ran their record to 5-0 with a 50-20 win at home over Iowa State. Gabriel passed for 366 yards and three TDs, ran for 37 yards and two more.
But Gabriel and the Sooners stumbled badly by the end of October. They'd reach number 6 in the country before a last-second 38-33 loss at unranked Kansas. The AP story read:
Gabriel completed a 39-yard pass to Brenan Thompson to reach the Kansas 34 with 24 seconds to go. After a short throw to Jovantae Barnes and an incompletion, the quarterback who had been nearly perfect all season threw high to the end zone on the final play to touch off the field-storming celebration.
He ran for 64 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, 14-19 passing for 171 yards, but a first quarter Pick Six gave the 5-2 Jayhawks a 7-0 lead in the first quarter. The Sooners fell to number 10, Gabriel plummeted on the Heisman leaderboard, and a few fans even began to clamor for 5-star freshman Jackson Arnold to take over at quarterback.
A week later at the last Bedlam Rivalry game in Stillwater, it was Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon who did the star turn. He carried 33 times for 137 yards and two touchdowns as the Cowboys topped Oklahoma 27-24. Gabriel passed for 344 yards but with no touchdowns and one interception, plus a lost fumble.
At 7-2, his Heisman run was essentially over, though he closed out the campaign with three straight wins. Against West Virginia on November 11 he piled up 423 yards passing and 5 touchdowns, 23-36, 11 carries for 50 yards and three more touchdowns on the ground as Oklahoma won 59-20.
The day after Thanksgiving he threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns in a 69-45 victory over TCU, adding 7 carries for 36 yards and a touchdown, including a 40-yard run.
But by that time LSU's Jayden Daniels had captivated the Heisman voters with big statistical performances against Florida, Georgia State and Texas A&M. He won with over 500 first place votes, Gordon was 7th and Gabriel didn't even crack the top ten.
In the Heisman race, you have to reward the judges' attention while you have it. Winning the award would make him the second Duck ever after his boyhood idol Marcus Mariota. Though it would be a boon to recruiting and a great honor, Dillon and the Ducks are focused on winning games. Which is exactly what they'd have to do for the 5-11 senior transfer to win it. For a team out west, the Heisman is a team accomplishment, one for which they will have to be nearly perfect.
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