Where is Hurricane Beryl headed next? Should the US prepare?

Hurricane Beryl continues to charge northwest after the Category 4 storm plowed into Grenada with a life-threatening storm surge, 150 mph winds and up to 10 inches of rain.

The hurricane has yet to weaken, and forecasters say it could stay a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) through at least Tuesday. But where is Beryl headed next?

Here is the latest forecast for Hurricane Beryl.

Where is Beryl?

Beryl’s winds are still powerful at 150 mph. It is headed west-northwest at a quick clip of 20 mph and is just northwest of Grenada.

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The National Hurricane Center expects the storm to strengthen through Tuesday morning before hitting some upper-level wind shear, which would cause it to weaken once it gets past the Caribbean islands.

“Regardless, Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane through late this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatán Peninsula should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates,” stated the NHC Advisory .

Where is Beryl headed and how much will it weaken

The NHC issued a Tropical Storm Warning for southern Haiti and southeast Puerto Rico. Beryl is still forecast to be a major Category 3 hurricane as it passes to the south Tuesday evening and overnight. On Wednesday, the storm will pass south of but even closer to Jamaica, which is under a Hurricane Warning.

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It will also pass close to the Cayman Islands on Thursday, but as of Monday afternoon, no watches are in place for the islands.

“The storm is being propelled by a strong high-pressure system sprawled across the Atlantic. The storminess along the East Coast of the U.S. yesterday was caused by a dip in the jet stream, which is weakening the high over the western Atlantic,” Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said.

“This is why there is a northward bend in Beryl’s track through the Caribbean,” he continued. “High pressure is forecast to build across the Southeast U.S. during the week, however, which should stop the northward movement, so Beryl resumes moving westward with perhaps a bend to the south.”

Does the US need to prepare for Hurricane Beryl?

The current track would take Beryl into the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday morning. The forecast knocks Beryl down to a tropical storm when it plows inland.

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“There is high confidence that Beryl will track west through the Caribbean, so there’s no threat to Florida and the surrounding areas. The steering flow will slow down, however, about the time the storm gets near or over the Yucatán Peninsula,” Norcross said. “Slow-moving storms are always less predictable, so we’ll keep open the possibility of Beryl ending up in the western Gulf next weekend. The odds of a problem for Texas don’t appear high, but they’re not zero at this point.”

Weekend forecast uncertain for Texas

The NWS office in Brownsville, Texas, agreed and stated that we should better understand where Beryl is headed after Thursday and Friday.

“All eyes are really on Days 5-7 and beyond, with Hurricane Beryl potentially lurking somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, it is still too early to lean one way or another, with a wide spread in model guidance,” stated the NWS.

“General consensus among the experts at the National Hurricane Center is Beryl will run into some wind shear and likely downgrade before approaching the Yucatán late Thursday into Friday,” the forecast discussion continued. “We may not know much more than that until Thursday or Friday.”

Hurricane Beryl became the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and made history while the storm rapidly intensified from a tropical depression to tropical storm and then a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in less than 48 hours. Beryl is the strongest June hurricane as well as the earliest a Category 4 storm formed since records started in 1851.

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